Where this data comes from
None of this came off a subscription. Our AI works the sources nobody indexes — county and assessor records, ownership filings, operator conversations, and the rent rolls and closing figures that move through our own brokerage — then reconciles them into one dataset. Most of what follows is not published anywhere, because nobody else is holding both sides of these deals.
- 4.75%
- Average going-in cap rate
- 5.42%
- Average value-add exit cap
- 69 of 69
- Markets posting absorption gains
- +0.5%
- Forecast national rent growth
Exit caps averaging 4.96%
Buyer and seller sentiment, Q1 2026
Q2 2026, second straight quarter
2026; +1.0% 2027, +2.3% 2028
The rent number most models use is the wrong one
Asking rents on new leases are negative on a trailing-twelve basis across the highest-supply Sun Belt submarkets: Austin −4.3%, Denver −3.6%, Tampa −3.4%, Phoenix −2.7%, Raleigh −2.0%. That is the number that gets quoted, and it describes only the marginal new lease.
Blended rents — new leases together with renewals — tell a different story. In Austin and Denver, asking growth is projected to stay negative through 2026 while blended growth turns positive. Underwriting to the asking print alone misprices those markets in both directions, and the gap is widest exactly where domestic migration is doing the most work.
Supply, not demand heroics, is driving the inflection
Absorption outpaced completions for a second consecutive quarter in Q2 2026, and all 69 tracked markets posted gains. The mechanism is the 2023 and 2024 collapse in starts: deliveries roll off through 2026 and into 2027, so the metros that overbuilt will tighten — but only after they finish absorbing what is already standing.
The timing gap between the last delivery leasing up and rent growth returning is where this year’s business plans live or die. Phoenix, Dallas–Fort Worth, New York and the constrained Midwest are on the near side of that gap. Charlotte, Miami, Tampa and much of Houston are still on the far side.
| Asset class | 2026 cap rate range | Profile |
|---|---|---|
| Class A | 4.5% – 5.5% | New construction, prime location, institutional |
| Class B | 5.5% – 6.5% | Stable mid-tier, value-add potential |
| Class C | 6.5% – 8.0% | Older stock, higher risk, stronger cash flow |
| Value-add | 6.0% – 8.5% | Repositioning, below-market rents |
Stabilized ranges across major US markets, 2026.
The national cap rate print does not underwrite a deal
Going-in cap rates average about 4.75% with exit caps near 4.96%, and the average value-add exit cap is 5.42%. Submarket dispersion is far wider than any of those figures: Atlanta infill value-add clears 4.50% to 5.00% while Phoenix and Austin value-add runs 5.50% to 6.25%, and secondary Midwest sits at 5.75% to 6.50%.
Compression in the first half of 2026 was concentrated in Class B, Class C and value-add rather than stabilized Class A — the opposite of what most people assume happens when rates stay high. A national average applied to a specific submarket is off by a full point often enough that it is not worth using.
Submarket dispersion: Dallas–Fort Worth
One metro, broken to the submarket. We run this for every market we cover.
| Submarket | Cap rate | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Plano | 4.8% | Trophy pricing, core buyers |
| Richardson | 5.0% | Institutional quality |
| Addison | 5.2% | Core-plus |
| Irving | 5.4% | Renovation upside |
| DFW average | 5.5% | $9.6B annual sales volume |
The comps are the report.
Everything above is the summary. The full report carries the market-level comps, the tier breakdowns, and the figures that never reach a listing. Verified, dated, and not available anywhere else.
Submarket cap-rate dispersion for all 69 markets
The DFW breakdown above, run for every tracked market, with the trades behind each read.
Blended versus asking rent spread by metro
The number your model should use, market by market, and how far it diverges from the headline print.
Concession load by submarket
Where six to twelve weeks of free rent is still standard, and what that does to effective rent.
Supply pipeline and absorption runway
Units under construction against trailing absorption, so you can see which metros clear and when.
Renovation premium bands by tier
Light-touch, classic and heavy-lift premiums by market cohort, against a flat-to-negative rent baseline.
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